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Fed Policy Outlook

By Dr. Scott Brown

Fed Policy Outlook – August 1, 2008

  • The FOMC is widely expected to leave short-term interest rates unchanged, but may slightly tweak the language in the policy statement.

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Fed Policy Outlook – July 25, 2008

  • The economic data were mixed, but generally soft.

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Fed Policy Outlook – July 18, 2008

  • In his monetary policy testimony, Fed Chairman Bernanke presented an uncertain economic outlook.

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Fed Policy Outlook – July 3, 2008

  • The economic data were mixed, but generally weak.

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Fed Policy Outlook – June 13, 2008

  • The market is now pricing in Fed rate hikes.

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Fed Policy Outlook – June 6, 2008

  • Fed Chairman Bernanke signaled more concern about the dollar and inflation pressures.

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Fed Policy Outlook – May 23, 2008

  • The Fed is unlikely to cut short-term interest rates anytime soon.

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Fed Policy Outlook – April 25, 2008

  • The Fed is likely to cut rates by another 25 basis points, but signal that further cuts are unlikely.

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Fed Policy Outlook – April 11, 2008

  • The Fed expects a contraction in the near term, but inflation fears may prevent an aggressive cut.

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Fed Policy Outlook – April 4, 2008

  • The economic data remained weak, but the stock market focused ahead to the recovery.

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Fed Policy Outlook – March 20, 2008

  • The FOMC cut 75 bps and, dismissing inflation concerns, hinted that further rate cuts were likely.

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Fed Policy Outlook – March 14, 2008

  • Credit market troubles have contributed to expectations of a larger Fed rate cut.

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Fed Policy Outlook – February 29, 2008

  • Bernanke said the Fed is serious about price stability, but downside risks are the greater worry.

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Fed Policy Outlook – February 22, 2008

  • The markets were battered with alternative fears of recession and inflation.

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Fed Policy Outlook – February 15, 2008

  • Bernanke presented a somber economic outlook.

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Fed Policy Outlook – February 8, 2008

  • The stock market was hit by fears of recession. Bond prices rose in a flight to quality, as odds of further Fed rate cuts increased.

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Fed Policy Outlook – February 1, 2008

  • The Fed cut by another 50 bps.

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Fed Policy Outlook – January 18, 2008

  • Economic data were mixed, but generally consistent with slower growth.

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Fed Policy Outlook – January 11, 2008

  • Chairman Bernanke indicated that the Fed stands ready to ease more aggressively

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Fed Policy Outlook – January 4, 2008

  • The economic data were weaker than expected, fanning fears of “recession.”

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Fed Policy Outlook – December 21, 2007

  • The Fed’s Term Auction Facility met strong demand. Consumer spending was strong in November.

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Fed Policy Outlook – December 7, 2007

  • The November jobs report solidified expectations of a 25-bp cut from the Fed on December 11.

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Fed Policy Outlook – November 30, 2007

  • Fed Chairman Bernanke and Vice Chairman Kohn opened the door for another rate cut.

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Fed Policy Outlook – November 9, 2007

  • Fed Chairman Bernanke presented a cautious economic outlook, implicitly leaving the door open for further rate cuts.

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Fed Policy Outlook – November 2, 2007

  • The Fed cut rates, as expected, and signaled that further cuts were unlikely anytime soon.

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Fed Policy Outlook – October 19, 2007

  • The Fed odds shifted sharply.

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Fed Policy Outlook – October 5, 2007

  • The September 18 FOMC minutes showed that the Fed was concerned about the potential economic impact of short-term credit market disruptions.

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Fed Policy Outlook – September 28, 2007

  • The economic data were mixed, but anxieties about future growth picked up.

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Fed Policy Outlook – September 21, 2007

  • The Fed surprised the market with a 50-bp move.

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Fed Policy Outlook – September 14, 2007

  • The financial markets are hoping for a ½ point cut in the Fed funds target rate. Most economists are leaning toward ¼ point.

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Fed Policy Outlook – September 7, 2007

  • The economic data were mixed, but nonfarm payrolls were much weaker than expected.

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Fed Policy Outlook – August 3, 2007

  • Fed policymakers are likely to acknowledge financial market volatility, but retain a tightening bias.

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Fed Policy Outlook – July 20, 2007

  • Bernanke added little to the Fed outlook.

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Fed Policy Outlook – June 29, 2007

  • The FOMC left short-term interest rates unchanged and kept its inflation bias.

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Fed Policy Outlook – June 22, 2007

  • Once again, the FOMC will leave rates unchanged, but the wording of the policy statement may change.

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Fed Policy Outlook – June 1, 2007

  • Data were consistent with mixed, but moderate, growth.

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Fed Policy Outlook – May 11, 2007

  • No surprises from the Fed.

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Fed Policy Outlook – April 27, 2007

  • The advanced 1Q07 GDP report reflected slower growth and higher inflation.

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Fed Policy Outlook – April 13, 2007

  • The FOMC minutes showed that policymakers were united in their concerns about inflation.

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Fed Policy Outlook – April 6, 2007

  • The March Employment Report was stronger than expected, reducing the odds of a Fed rate cut within the next several months.

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The opinions offered by Dr. Brown should be considered a part of your overall decision-making process. For more information about this report – to discuss how this outlook may affect your personal situation and/or to learn how this insight may be incorporated into your investment strategy – please contact your financial advisor or use the convenient Office Locator to find our office(s) nearest you today.

All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the Research Department of Raymond James & Associates (RJA) at this date and are subject to change. Information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing report is accurate or complete. Other departments of RJA may have information which is not available to the Research Department about companies mentioned in this report. RJA or its affiliates may execute transactions in the securities mentioned in this report which may not be consistent with the report's conclusions. RJA may perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking business from, any company mentioned in this report. For institutional clients of the European Economic Area (EEA): This document (and any attachments or exhibits hereto) is intended only for EEA Institutional Clients or others to whom it may lawfully be submitted.
 

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